Fantasy Football Today: Dave Richard’s QB levels and strategies for 2021, plus Dynasty levels for beyond

Picture this: You’re in your draft, you have two running backs and two wide receivers, you don’t like any of the tight ends available, and you think it’s the perfect time to pick up a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is off the chart, but Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott are still there as you sit at four choices.

Then suddenly two quarterbacks go and you’re on the clock. You have two of the next six picks, and one of the two teams between you has already taken Mahomes. So do you take a QB now or wait for the next pick to come?

Well, with three QBs gone and two remaining at the top of Dave Richard’s standings, your best bet is to pass on a QB with that pick and take one coming back. Worst-case scenario, the team that didn’t take Mahomes takes one of the two remaining QBs, leaving you with the scraps. You have your best non-QB player and one of the top QBs is gone.

This is the value of writing with levels. Ordinal rankings are great, but it can be hard to tell how much better #7 is than, say, #8, or if the gap between #4 and #6 is the same as #8. ‘between 11 and 13. This is where levels come in. If you see that there are a lot of players left in a level at one position, that’s usually a sign that you can wait. You might prefer, say, Jackson to Prescott, but unless you think the gap is huge, waiting to take the last player in a level can be a great strategy.

We talked about quarterback levels on Monday’s episode of Fantasy Football Today, with Dave presenting his levels and Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer helping him break them down. You can listen to that episode here, while checking out Dave’s tiered rankings and his QB strategies written below. And, if you’re looking for long-term answers, Heath Cummings has his pre-training camp update at his Dynasty QB levels, where he identifies Trey Lance, Carson Wentzand James Winston like three who could jump up the rankings with a good camp and a good pre-season. Check out his analysis and levels here.

And now here’s Dave with his updated QB levels and strategies:

Dave Richard’s Updated QB Levels

Many writers will wait and wait to pick up a quarterback because there will always be someone with modest weekly potential in the later rounds. It is certainly true.

But why go for “modest weekly potential” when you should aim for “overwhelming league potential?” »

It’s the quarterbacks in the first two tiers that have the most upside, of course. While you might want to get them at a great discount, the reality is that many fantasy managers like to take quarterbacks in rounds 1-3. You’ll just have to let them. But if you can trap any of those top nine quarterbacks at anything from fair value to a total rip off, you’re doing well.

And if you miss them, that’s okay. You know you can fall back on finding an arm with “modest earning potential” later.

But there’s also the sinister idea of ​​signing two quarterbacks – one to be your hit-and-miss starter and one to roll the dice as a mega-value MVP.

And those letters, “MVP,” are appropriate. Mahomes was a late pick in 2018, Jackson was a late pick in 2019 and Aaron Rodgers was a late pick in 2020. All three won league MVP (and Fantasy MVP) thanks to their unreal numbers.

Your goal, whether you take a quarterback before Round 7 or not, is to draft the end-of-round MVP. And even if you don’t end up with the real MVP, you can still find someone who produces big like Justin Herbert made last year, or Carson Wentz Where Alex Smith made in 2016. You get the idea.

The third and fourth tiers are full of names that can be your rags-to-riches quarterback. Yes, some of them might not run even 100 yards this season, but pocket setters have shown accuracy, efficiency, and high passing volume in the past, and mobile setters have, well, legs to rack up loads of Fantasy Numbers, not to mention Progressive Offenses that will use their legs (and their arms aren’t that bad either). Two of them are rookies that offer amazing perks. Getting one of these guys on the bench to start the year, just to see what happens, is worth the price of a pick after Round 9. It’s easily the best bet you can make for yourself- even on draft day.

DAVE’S FAVORITE STRATEGY: I’m hoping to get some value out of drafting a top quarterback. Whether you land one or settle for a field general in the middle/later rounds, don’t pass up the chance to land a late-round quarterback you think could massively outperform his value. repechage.

First level

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Kyler Murray
lamar jackson
Dak Prescott

Second level

Justin Herbert
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Jalen hurts

Third level

Tom Brady
Ryan Tannehill
Joe Terrier
Matthew Stafford

Fourth level

ROUNDS 11-12
Deshaun Watson
Trevor Lawrence
Trey Lance
Kirk Cousins
matt ryan

Fifth level

Justin Fields
Tua Tagovailoa
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Carson Wentz
Mayfield Baker
Cam Newton
Sam Darnold
Daniel Jones

So which sleepers, breakouts, and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every position, all from the model that called up Josh Allen’s huge season, and find out.

About the author