We make a lot of predictions in this sector. While we try to provide general strategy advice to help you reach the best conclusions on how to build a fantasy team yourself, anyone working in this industry knows that what everyone really wants to know is the players. .
Who will be good? Who will be bad? Who will outperform their draft prize the most? Who will disappoint? That’s what you really want to know. And there’s a difference between “Here’s what’s most likely to happen” and “Here’s where I’m going on a branch.” It’s the difference between a normal old prediction and a bold prediction. The latter is to plant a flag, take a stand, and say, “This could decide your fantasy championships.”
And the latter is what we’ve spent this week talking about on the Fantasy Football Today podcast.
Jamey Eisenberg gave his bold predictions for the 2021 season on Tuesday, Heath Cummings gave his on Wednesday, Dave Richard’s were in Thursday’s episode, and mine were in Friday’s episode. You should check out all of these episodes to hear our discussions on each, why we think these things could happen, and what it would mean for these players, their teammates and more.
You can also read more about each of our bold predictions below. And if you have any bold predictions of your own – or want to tell us why our predictions are wrong – contact me at [email protected] to let me know and we’ll include your comments and questions in an upcoming newsletter. .
Now here is where we plant our flags:
Chris’ Bold Predictions
No. 1: Kyle Pitts breaks all TE rookie records
Here’s what those records look like, for the record: 81 captures (keith jackson in 1988), 894 yards (Jeremy Shockey in 2002) and 10 touchdowns (Rob Gronkowski in 2010). Here’s how I threw Pitts: 68 catches, 847 yards, six touchdowns. But I have to admit, I had to force myself to be more conservative with this projection than I originally wanted to be – because I initially had it break reception and distance records. Most rookie tight ends struggle to make an impact, true, but most college tight ends don’t do what Pitts just did at UF — 43 catches, 770 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. It is differentand land in Atlanta, potentially as a Julio Jones replacing on offense is a great opportunity most rookie tight ends don’t get. I could see him struggling, but I think Pitts is more likely to enter the top tier at the tight end than he is to finish outside the top 12.
N°2: Michael Thomas finishes as the No. 1 WR
The first thing that should happen here would be for James Winston to earn the starting QB job for the Saints, and that’s what I expect – whatever his limitations, he raises the cap on this offense in a way Taysom Hill never could. Thomas would also need to stay healthy after a sprained ankle limited him pretty much the entire season in 2020. If those two things happen, Thomas’ advantage isn’t as high as it is. he never was — he beat the No. 2 WR by over 100 PPR points in 2019 — but that’s still as high as anyone else in the NFL, I think. The Saints still don’t have much WR help outside of Thomas and, while Winston isn’t as accurate as Drew Bree was at his best, he will make up for some of that by taking more shots from the field. Thomas should be a target hog, and with a more aggressive QB in mind, his first double-digit touchdown season isn’t out of the question either.
No. 3: Nick Chubb finishes outside the top 20 at RB in PPR
If you regularly read this newsletter, you know that I am a little behind on Chubb compared to the industry. In the NFC Drafts so far this year, he’s exited the board as the No. 11 player overall and No. 8 RB; he’s RB15 to me and a marginal second-round pick. And that’s while throwing it for third-fastest yards and second-fastest touchdowns in the league, so you can hardly say I’m being unfair here. If I lowered his projection to be fifth in rushing yards and touchdowns, he drops to 20th in PPR points. Drop him eighth in both and he’s RB22 in PPR and RB18 in non-PPR. Since the arrival of hunt kareem in Cleveland, Chubb is averaging 15.6 PPR points per game — that would have been good for 16th in 2020 and 14th in 2019. Chubb clearly has the top 10, but that’s kind of a best-case scenario. If things go wrong for him in 2021, he could just be a marginal No. 2 RB.
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No. 1: Jalen Hurts will be one of the top five QBs
Hurts starred as the star of Fantasy last year when he scored 20, 43 and 19 Fantasy points in his first three starts against New Orleans, Arizona and Dallas, and he was on the pace for 4,517 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, as well as 1,269 rushing yards and five touchdowns in 16 games. It’s probably not realistic, but his rushing potential gives him a huge advantage over most quarterbacks…
No. 2: Terry McLaurin will be a top-five WR
I like McLaurin a lot alone, but I like him with the addition of the quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Since 2010, in stops with the Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets and Dolphins, Fitzpatrick has eight seasons with at least nine starts. During this period, his No. 1 receiver — Steve Johnson (thrice), Kendall Wright, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall (twice) and DeVante Parker — had at least 128 targets over the year. There were seven times the No. 1 receiver had at least 72 catches, six times the No. 1 receiver had at least 1,000 yards, and three times the No. 1 receiver had at least 10 touchdowns…
No. 3: TJ Hockenson will be one of the top three TEs
You don’t draft Hockenson before Travis Kelce, George Kittle Where Darren Waller, but he could end up ahead of them if things go well. Some of the best tight ends in recent years have come from guys who were top receivers in their respective offenses with little competition for targets, including Kittle, Waller, Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz, among others. Hockenson could be that guy for the Lions this season…
No. 1: Josh Jacobs will be a low-end No. 2 RB at best
The addition of the Raiders of Kenyan drake isn’t just to fill a spot on the roster — their staff seem in love with his receiving skills and physical style. These are two areas in which Jacobs has not excelled – he averaged 2.6 targets per game for two seasons and in 2020 ranked outside the top 20 in both yards after contact per attempt and elusive, according to Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas has revamped its offensive line with three new starters, and they have one of the worst schedules for their running backs, including matchups with the Ravens and Steelers in Weeks 1 and 2 and dates with the Bears, Eagles, Washington, Browns and Colts all down the line…
No. 2: Marquise Brown to finish in top 24 WR
This one’s a little harder to buy, but not when you take Brown’s numbers from his last eight games (including the playoffs) and extrapolate them to 17. His total of eight backs: 37 receptions, 534 yards and six touchdowns. Do the math and Brown ends up with 78 catches, 1,130 yards, 12 points…
No. 3: Tyler Boyd will be the Bengals’ best PPR WR
Yeah, that prediction is the one I’m marinating on, but I like it. Everyone is hyped Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins t-shirt for a very good reason, but Boyd has his role locked in as Joe Burrow’s slot guy. This means that whenever Burrow feels pressure and needs to get the ball off the ground quickly, which will be often, he can easily find Boyd…
No. 1: Dak Prescott breaks Peyton Manning’s record
Prescott will not only break Manning’s passing distance record, but in the process, he will also win the MVP title! It sounds more ridiculous than it actually is. Prescott has played 20 full games since Kellen Moore took over as offensive coordinator. He threw for 6,592 yards in those 20 games – 329.6 yards per game. In a 17-game season, that’s a record 5,603 passing yards. If Prescott stays healthy, he’ll challenge Manning’s record…
No. 2: D’Andre Swift finishes among the top five RBs in PPR
Yes, I have read all the glowing reports on jamal williams like an “A” back. If you’re surprised that an Anthony Lynn team intends to cut the ball carrier’s sidelines, you haven’t been paying attention. A secondary guard has averaged at least 10 touches per game each of the last three seasons for the Chargers. More importantly for Swift, the lead back has averaged at least 17 touches each of the past five years in Lynn’s system…
No. 3: Mark Andrews finishes as No. 1 TE
OK, even I know I look a little crazy with this one. But before you anoint Kyle Pitts the following Travis Kelce or celebrate TJ Hockenson imminent escape, let’s at least recognize that Andrews has already proven himself in the elite…