On Monday’s episode of Fantasy football today, Dave Richard and Heath Cummings looked at early ADP trends and highlighted their favorite stocks in each position. Of course, we are almost four months away from the start of the season, but it is never too early to measure the wisdom of the public!
Obviously, a lot is going to change by the time most of you resume. But I’ll also point out that the people currently drafting in the high-stakes leagues are probably sharper than your average player, which means it’s certainly worth looking at what the drafters in the National Fantasy Championship leagues are doing, even at this early date.
As we get closer to the season, some of these values will fade while others will come into sharper focus as we move through minicamps and training camp. Position hierarchies will become clearer and – unfortunately, as happens every season – injuries will cause seismic shifts as activity increases.
Yet, we can learn a lot from what is happening now, as early trends and assumptions can be hard to shake. I have a few favorite values from Heath and Dave based on the current ADP, but you really should listen to the podcast to hear what they have to say about each below:
For convenience, I’ve timestamped the parts of the podcast where they talked about each position below. And I’ve got my top five favorite values and five players I’m not likely to draft if their prices stay where they are now – including two established superstars and two more that many are hoping to make that leap!
Before that, here’s what the CBS Fantasy team did for you to read:
Please check the subscribe box to confirm that you wish to subscribe.
Thank you for your registration!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
An error occurred while processing your subscription.
ADP Preliminary Review
Based on drafts since the NFL Draft ended at the NFC:
Top Five Values I Like
- Joe Mixon (19.9) – I have Mixon as the No. 7 RB and a top 12 player overall, so I’d love to have him at the end of Round 2 as the No. 15 RB. Maybe I’m overly optimistic about his projected role in the passing game, but I think he could finally be the elite that the folks at Fantasy RB have been waiting for him to be. He’s always had talent, and now he has an opportunity.
- Chris Carson (40.9) – Carson is going to be a target for me every draft because I have him in the top 25 overall. There are injury issues, sure, but he’s a three-back in an attack who wants to rely heavily on the run, and we’ve seen him be a very valuable fantasy player in that role. I don’t see why that should change.
- DJ Moore (56.8) — My guess is Sam Darnold habit be an upgrade on Teddy Bridgewaterbut it can’t be worse than Kyle Allen and Will Grier, law? Moore was one of the top 15 WRs to catch passes from these guys in 2019, and while I don’t want to say that’s his floor, I’m pretty confident that Moore will be a staple in Fantasy WR no matter what. come. And, if anything clicks with Darnold, he could become a legit do-it-all, No. 1 WR like Stefan Diggs did with another much maligned young QB last season.
- Tyler Locket (60.2) – Lockett gets ripped off for a perceived inconsistency, and that’s not entirely unfair – he only played four games last season with over 70 yards, after all. Still, he’s had eight or more touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and has seen his total goal increase by 22 or more in each of the past two. Whether DK Metcalf is the real No. 1 here or not, Lockett is still going to see plenty of opportunities for big performances.
- matt ryan (87.1) – Jones’ status could play a big part in how Ryan is perceived for Fantasy, but as long as he has Calvin Riley, Kyle Pitts and Jones (for now) on his side, he’s going to be someone you want to start for Fantasy. If you want to wait to pick up a QB, Ryan is the 13th drafted right now. It’s a great value.
Five top values I dislike
- Nick Chubb (11.8) – Chubb is a great rusher, but he arguably has to be the best in football to justify that kind of cost. He was in 2020, rushing for 5.6 yards per carry and scoring once every 15.8 carries and finished as RB8 in points per game in PPR. If he averaged his career ratings of 5.2 yards per carry and a touchdown per 24.3 carries – still great ratings! — he would have been RB20. That is to say, if Chubb is simply “very good”, he is probably a disappointment for Fantasy.
- JK Dobbins (24.0) – Dobbins shares many of the same qualities with Chubb, except he also has questions about his workload. He should be the Ravens’ point guard, but in recent seasons that’s usually meant around 12-15 carries most weeks, with a limited passing role. Given that, it’s hard to justify paying a premium price. I would like to wait at least another round, which means I won’t be drafting him much.
- mike evans (42.1) – Evans finished as a WR16 last season despite having 13 touchdowns on just 109 targets, and he’s the 13th WR being drafted right now. Maybe he repeats that hit rate, but I wouldn’t bet on that – especially if Antonio Brown is healthy to start the season. Evans looks more like a low-end No. 2 WR to me, at best, not a marginal No. 1.
- Lamb CeeDee (44.2) — It’s not unreasonable to expect Lamb to take a big leap forward in his sophomore season, especially after playing just five games with Dak Prescott as a rookie. And he’s been great in those five games, rushing for 1,386 yards and 93 catches. However, it is currently outpacing amari cooper — and Jones and Robert Woods, among others – and I can’t justify that yet. Cooper is still likely to be the primary target for this attack, and hitting Lamb this early is not a move I can make at such a stacked position.
- Robert Tonyan (110.3) — Tonyan is one of the most obvious regression candidates in the league, and I’m just not going to draft someone who finished 24th among tight ends in targets as a starter. It will be relegated to the streaming heap before long.
FFT: Favorite values
Quarterbacks (begins at 11:55 p.m. from the pod)
Dave’s favorite: Trevor Lawrence (89 overall, QB15)
- After matt ryan
- Before Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson
Heath’s favorite: Taysom Hill (193 overall, QB30)
- After Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Before Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Newton
Heather: Aaron Jones (13 total, RB10)
- After Cam Akers
- Before Austin Ekeler, By Andre Swift
David: Travis Stephen (38 total, RB22)
- After David Montgomery
- Before Chris Carson, hunt kareem
Heather: Mike Davis (105 total, RB35)
- After david johnson
- Before Jeff Wilson, Damien Harris
David: Leonard Fournette (76 total, RB31)
- After Rahim Mostert
- Before AJ Dillon, Kenyan drake
Heather: jamal williams (136 total, RB47)
- After Alexander Mattison
- Before Single diviner, Sermon Trey
David: James Conner (118 total, RB43)
- After Michael Carter
- Before Gus Edwards, JD McKissic
Wide Receivers (43:00)
Heather: A.J. Brown (26 overall, WR8)
- After Justin Jefferson
- Before Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen
David: mike evans (41 overall, WR13)
- After Terry McLaurin
- Before chris godvin, Julio Jones
Heather: Robby Anderson (88 overall, WR35)
- After Will Fuller
- Before DeVonta Smith, jerry jedy
David: Chase Claypool (66 total WR27)
- After Tyler Locket
- Before Chase Claypool, Ju Ju Smith Schuster
Heather: brandin cooks (104 total, WR42)
- After Marquise Brown
- Before Jarvis Landry, Michael Pitman
David: Elijah Moore (201 total, WR72)
- After Terrace Marshal
- Before Darius Slayton, Emmanuel Sander
Tight Ends (55:00)
David: TJ Hockenson 72 in total, TE5
- After Mark Andrews
- Before Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert
Heather: Mark Andrews (64 in total, TE4)
- After the Big Three
- Before Hockenson, Pitts